A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
